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Extra info for Agricultural Trade and Poverty: Making Policy Analysis Count

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In each case, prices (domestic and world) and quantities (of production, consumption and trade) of the scenario can be compared to the original values of the Outlook in order to identify the effects of the changes in assumptions about macroeconomic growth or about policies and policy implementation during the projection period. Special reports Aglink use is not restricted to the annual Outlook exercise. In addition, the model is applied to provide quantitative analysis in support of special reports under various items of the programme of work of the OECD’s Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries.

In the case of officially supported export credits, the analysis by the OECD estimates a subsidy element of such programs during the 1994-1998 period for which survey data are available and also notes evidence that supports a treatment in the model that is the same as the treatment of export subsidies - namely, the relatively large share of officially supported export credits provided to countries that are likely to import from competitive markets. Thus, the analysis of this report provides estimates of the impact of an elimination of either of these two export competition policies on world commodity markets.

Trade in agriculture would increase by 17% at the global level, with agricultural and food exports increasing by 24% for low and middle-income countries. This gives the latter an opportunity to purchase needed manufactured imports and capital goods. In the next section, we provide a brief overview of global agricultural support patterns. This is followed by the results section of the paper, including policy scenarios, estimates, and interpretation, and finally some concluding remarks. The model documentation is available in van der Mensbrugghe (2001) and therefore not reproduced here.

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